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Most Recent
20
Questions
8
High Confidence
1
Uncertain
1
Closing Soon
📈 Big
Movers
View all →
↑
+5.0%
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
31% → 36%
243 forecasters
↓
-3.0%
Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the ...
35% → 32%
183 forecasters
Tech
certain
#578
Will humans go extinct before 2100?
Almost certainly not
1%
→
0% – 9%
Tech
certain
#349
Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?
Almost certainly not
0%
→
0% – 1%
Tech
certain
#384
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
Almost certainly yes
96%
→
86% – 99%
Geopolitics
leaning
#2534
Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?
Leaning no
22%
→
14% – 32%
Economy
likely
#737
Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?
Leaning no
15%
→
7% – 25%
Geopolitics
likely
#41316
Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the U...
Highly unlikely
12%
→
7% – 20%
Geopolitics
leaning
#11589
Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?
Leaning no
20%
→
13% – 30%
Economy
certain
#41343
Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China ...
Almost certainly not
1%
→
0% – 5%
Economy
leaning
#41336
Will OpenAI API token prices fall before March 14, 2026?
Leaning no
20%
→
13% – 30%
Economy
leaning
#41302
Will layoffs.fyi explicity report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between Ja...
Leaning yes
70%
→
57% – 77%
Social
leaning
#353
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
Leaning no
25%
→
8% – 65%
Economy
likely
#40726
Will Nvidia's stock price reach a new record close in February 2026?
Highly unlikely
9%
→
5% – 15%
Law
certain
#10832
Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?
Almost certainly not
3%
→
0% – 8%
Natural
leaning
#3834
Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be d...
Leaning no
23%
→
13% – 45%
Social
certain
#41501
Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other count...
Almost certainly not
0%
→
0% – 3%
Economy
likely
#41358
Will the German 10-Year Bond Yield move by 20bps or more during February 2026?
Highly unlikely
14%
→
10% – 20%
Geopolitics
leaning
#11112
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?
Slightly likely
66%
→
52% – 75%
Politics
certain
#11588
Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?
Almost certainly not
3%
→
1% – 8%
Economy
leaning
#41213
Will China's reported holdings of U.S. Treasuries be below $675 billion for D...
Leaning yes
75%
→
62% – 80%
Geopolitics
uncertain
#5320
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
Toss-up
51%
→
33% – 70%